L I B R A R Y
Speculative U.S. Dollar Positioning Stretched Into 2019
Non-commercial long dollar positioning remains near $29 billion long versus global currency futures, compared to previous extremes at $40 billion net long in the year 2015. Speculators are mostly bearish against developed market commodity currencies versus the U.S. Dollar. -- Damanick Dantes, CMT
Asset Management: The Active-Passive Debate
The asset management industry is a vital pillar in the management of US household assets. A battle is raging for the dominance in that mandate between actively and passively managed funds, but it is focused mostly on the cost advantage of passive funds. Other worthwhile considerations are not getting much airtime but ought to be taken note of. -- Ruben Calderon
I N V E S T M E N T R E S E A R C H
Price Low in a Bear Market?
When two years of accelerated buying activity suddenly comes to a halt, all investors should pay attention. That's the case with the NYSE Composite, which tracks more than 1,900 stocks including foreign listings. The NYSE Composite registered upside price exhaustions on four occasions over the past market cycle beginning around 2008, and at each exhaustion, price momentum decelerated ahead of significant market corrections. This time, following a similar historical pattern of corrections within an up-trend, a strong level of support is nearby which could mark a price low, but not necessarily the ultimate low for stocks. On a relative basis, international equities like China register better long-term price lows, which could attract greater buying interest versus U.S. equities during a coming relief rally. However, keep in mind that the decline in momentum since 2014 occurred despite new price highs in the NYSE Composite in early 2018. This means that the divergence between momentum and price warrants caution for certain risk assets in 2019. -- Damanick Dantes, CMT