April 2022

Trend Stage Analysis

By Yuvraj Ghariwala

U.S. Market (S&P 500) – Stage 4

The S&P 500 currently appears to be in Stage 4. This phase is marked by a clear breakdown below the key moving averages, with both the 10-week and 21-week EMAs trending downward, signaling sustained bearish momentum. Recent price action suggests a retest of the declining 21 EMA, which typically acts as resistance in a Stage 4 environment. Unless the index can decisively reclaim and hold above these EMAs, the broader trend remains negative.

Developed Markets ex-US – Stage 2

The Developed Markets ex-US index has recently transitioned into Stage 2, following a prolonged Stage 1 basing phase from 2021 to early 2025. This transition is confirmed by the upward slope in both the 10-week and 21-week EMAs, signaling the beginning of a new uptrend. Notably, a shakeout event last month, which briefly broke support before quickly recovering, likely acted as a final washout before the breakout—an occurrence often seen at the end of Stage 1. With momentum turning positive, the index is now demonstrating characteristics of a bullish advancing phase.

Emerging Markets – Stage 1

Emerging Markets remain in Stage 1, following a Stage 4 decline that ended in 2022. Since then, the market has moved sideways, and both the 10-week and 21-week EMAs have flattened, reflecting the absence of a directional trend. Despite occasional rallies, there are no strong signs of accumulation or breakout, and the moving averages have not yet turned upward, a key signal for a transition into Stage 2. This indicates the market remains in a basing phase, waiting for a decisive trigger to initiate a sustainable uptrend.